This report shows that Ontario faces an electricity supply shortage and reliability risks in the next four to eight years and will not meet net zero objectives without building new low-emission, nuclear generation starting as soon as possible.

Since 2013, Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has been forecasting a significant gap in the province’s electricity supply due to anticipated closure of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, now scheduled for 2025. The province will lose 3000 megawatts (MW) or 15% of Ontario’s low-cost, low-carbon 24/7 electricity. Compounding the resulting supply gap, the IESO has been underestimating the electricity required to reduce emissions in the transportation, building and industrial sectors. Strapolec’s analysis indicates the electrification of the economy will increase the province’s electricity demand by 136%. Combined, these two drivers could increase Ontario’s need for more electricity capacity by 55 gigawatts (GW) in less than 30 years. Of this, the required new incremental baseload supply is equivalent to doubling Ontario’s existing nuclear and hydro generation capacity.

Strapolec’s Electrification Pathways assessment shows that Ontario will be unable to achieve its 2050 net zero emission objectives without building more low-carbon nuclear generation in the province.