Energy & Climate
Ontario faces an electricity supply shortage and reliability risks in the next four to eight years, and will not meet net zero objectives without building new low-emission supply, such as nuclear generation, as soon as possible. Since 2013, Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has been forecasting a significant gap in the province’s electricity supply due to the anticipated closure of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, now scheduled for 2025. Compounding this supply gap, the electricity required to reduce emissions in the transportation, building and industrial sectors has been underestimated.
Electrification Pathways analyzes how Ontario’s economy can achieve net zero, and illustrates how emerging technologies can be leveraged to reduce the cost of Ontario’s future electricity system in a net zero scenario. It finds that the magnitude of new, incremental, and non-emitting baseload supply necessary is double Ontario’s existing nuclear and hydro generation capacity. The analysis goes further to look at the options for procuring this new generation, and recommends procurement processes that optimize the resulting supply mix and maximize the societal benefits of infrastructure expansion.
- The theory and effectiveness of electricity markets for achieving efficiencies, managing and sharing risks, and accommodating other public policy objectives;
- A historical look at how the electricity markets in Ontario have fared against these criteria;
- The nature of demand that the electricity system in Ontario must supply and the characteristics of the foreseeable low emission options available to supply it; and,
- Simulations of how market mechanisms would accommodate these low-emitting supply options.
2020 Green Ribbon Panel
Ontario’s Emissions and the Long-Term Energy Plan
- ~90 TWh of new generation is required to meet the 2030 emission reduction targets, 80% more energy than the ~50 TWh provided for in the Ontario Planning Outlook D scenario.
- An LTEP process focused on the province’s climate change objectives is critical to lowering costs and meeting emission targets
- The LTEP should seek the lowest cost emission-free energy solutions that reflect the integrated costs of generation, transmission, and distribution.
- Reduce the estimated annual cost of meeting Ontario’s 2030 emission reduction targets;
- Support the timely achievement of Ontario’s emission targets and minimize the need to purchase emission credit allowances from other jurisdictions; and,
- Ensure Ontario’s competitive advantage through strategic investments in “made-in-Ontario” solutions that achieve the province’s emission reduction targets and yield the highest payback for Ontarians.